Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund prediction : lineups, odds and betting tips
The Bundesliga returns with a mouthwatering clash as Bayer Leverkusen travel to Signal Iduna Park to face Borussia Dortmund on Saturday, January 11, 2025. This fixture pits two of Germany’s most explosive attacking sides against each other in what promises to be a tactical masterclass. Xabi Alonso’s perfect record against Dortmund speaks volumes—six wins from six matches during his managerial career. Leverkusen, currently sitting second in the table just four points behind Bayern Munich, aim to continue their remarkable form against a Dortmund side struggling for consistency. With Die Werkself displaying championship-caliber performances and BVB fighting to climb from sixth position, this match could prove decisive in the Bundesliga race.
The division’s two best attacking sides square off
Offensive firepower comparison
When comparing attacking prowess, both teams boast impressive firepower that would make any defense nervous. Leverkusen’s attack centers around creative genius Florian Wirtz, who has already notched 11 goals and 10 assists this season. His partnership with Patrick Schick has terrorized Bundesliga defenses, creating a dynamic offensive unit reminiscent of their treble-winning campaign last year. Wirtz’s vision and Schick’s clinical finishing have established Leverkusen as the league’s most dangerous attacking side.
| Leverkusen Attack | Season Statistics |
|---|---|
| Florian Wirtz | 11 goals, 10 assists |
| Patrick Schick | 9 goals, 3 assists |
| Team Goals | 39 goals in 17 matches |
Dortmund counters with their formidable striking duo of Beier and Guirassy, supported by the creative talents of Malen, Brandt, and Gittens. Julian Brandt remains the unsung hero for BVB, consistently providing both goals and assists throughout the season. Their 4-1-3-2 formation allows for width and central penetration, though they’ve struggled to convert chances with the same efficiency as their rivals Bayern Munich or Leverkusen this season.
| Dortmund Attack | Season Statistics |
|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy | 8 goals, 2 assists |
| Julian Brandt | 5 goals, 7 assists |
| Team Goals | 31 goals in 17 matches |
Recent form analysis
The form guide tells a compelling story heading into this clash. Leverkusen have been simply unstoppable, winning all five of their recent matches across all competitions. After a slightly shaky start to their Bundesliga campaign, Die Werkself have rediscovered the dominant form that saw them claim an historic treble last season. Their press, possession, and precision in front of goal have returned to championship levels.
Conversely, Dortmund’s recent form reads like a team in transition: one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five games. Their inconsistency has plagued them throughout the season, preventing them from mounting a serious title challenge despite moments of brilliance. A victory against Leverkusen could potentially see them leapfrog Eintracht Frankfurt into third position, adding significant stakes to this home fixture at Signal Iduna Park.
| Team | Last 5 Matches |
|---|---|
| Leverkusen | W-W-W-W-W |
| Dortmund | W-D-L-D-D |
Head-to-head records
The historical rivalry between these Bundesliga giants spans 106 matches, with Dortmund holding a slight edge. BVB have claimed 46 victories (43% win rate) compared to Leverkusen’s 33 wins, with 27 draws completing the record. However, recent history strongly favors Leverkusen, particularly under Xabi Alonso’s tactical guidance.
| Head-to-Head Stats | Total |
|---|---|
| Total Matches | 106 |
| Dortmund Wins | 46 |
| Leverkusen Wins | 33 |
| Draws | 27 |
The Spanish tactician has crafted a perfect record against Dortmund, winning all six of his managerial encounters during spells with Bayern Munich and Barcelona. His tactical flexibility and deep understanding of German football gives Leverkusen a significant psychological edge heading into this clash, similar to how Atletico Madrid often approach tactical battles under Simeone.
Key players to watch
For Dortmund, 27-year-old Swiss goalkeeper Gregor Kobel represents their last line of defense. His heroics during their Champions League campaign last season, where they reached the final, demonstrate his importance to the squad. In midfield, Julian Brandt continues to be the creative catalyst, providing both goals and crucial assists throughout the season.
- Dortmund’s Difference Makers: Gregor Kobel (goalkeeper), Julian Brandt (midfielder), Serhou Guirassy (striker)
- Leverkusen’s Key Performers: Alejandro Grimaldo (wing-back), Florian Wirtz (attacking midfielder), Granit Xhaka (midfielder)
Leverkusen counter with 29-year-old Spanish left-wing back Alejandro Grimaldo, who played an instrumental role in their treble-winning campaign in 2024. His attacking contributions from defense add another dimension to Leverkusen’s play. Florian Wirtz remains their creative heartbeat, dominating games with his vision and technical brilliance in a manner reminiscent of how Raphinha impacts games for Barcelona in La Liga.
| Player | Impact Stats |
|---|---|
| Florian Wirtz | 11 goals, 10 assists, 37 chances created |
| Julian Brandt | 5 goals, 7 assists, 31 chances created |
Tactical battle and predicted lineups
Tactically, this match presents a fascinating contrast in styles. Dortmund’s 4-1-3-2 formation provides width and central attacking options but leaves them potentially vulnerable to Leverkusen’s wing-backs in transition. Nmecha’s defensive midfield role will be crucial in screening a backline missing Niklas Sule. Pascal Grob’s suspension further complicates selection for the home side.
| Borussia Dortmund (4-1-3-2) | Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1) |
|---|---|
| Kobel (GK) | Hradecky (GK) |
| Couto, Can, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini | Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie |
| Nmecha | Frimpong, Palacios, Xhaka, Grimaldo |
| Malen, Brandt, Gittens | Tella, Wirtz |
| Beier, Guirassy | Schick |
Leverkusen’s 3-4-2-1 system maximizes Grimaldo and Frimpong’s attacking contributions from wing-back positions while maintaining defensive solidity with three central defenders. The midfield pairing of Xhaka and Palacios provides both defensive shield and progressive passing, creating the platform for Wirtz’s creativity to flourish. This tactical setup has proven incredibly successful in European competition and domestically.
Betting analysis and predictions
The betting markets strongly favor Leverkusen at 29/20, reflecting their superior form and tactical edge under Alonso. Granit Xhaka represents interesting value as first goalscorer at 14/1, particularly given his tendency to arrive late in the box during Leverkusen’s fluid attacking moves. The predicted scoreline of 3-1 to Leverkusen (14/1) accounts for both teams’ attacking strengths while acknowledging Dortmund’s defensive vulnerabilities.
With Leverkusen’s perfect recent form and Dortmund’s struggles for consistency, backing the away side represents the value bet. Expect Wirtz to continue his creative brilliance, potentially adding to his impressive assists tally for the season. For those tracking form across European football’s top leagues, following real-time table updates provides crucial context for betting decisions across competitions.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen
