Manchester United vs Athletic Club : prediction, lineups, betting tips and match preview
The UEFA Europa League semi-final first leg between Manchester United and Athletic Club promises high-stakes football at the iconic San Mames Stadium in Bilbao. Set for Thursday, May 1, 2025, with kick-off at 19:00 GMT, this clash pits Athletic’s perfect home Europa League record against United’s desperate campaign for European qualification. The Spanish side sits comfortably fourth in La Liga while the Red Devils languish in the Premier League, making this competition their lifeline for European football next season. With Athletic unbeaten since January and United struggling for consistency, this fixture could deliver tactical intrigue and dramatic moments.
Predicted lineups and team news
Manchester United are expected to deploy a 3-4-2-1 formation in Bilbao, with Andre Onana guarding the net behind a defensive trio of Leny Yoro, Harry Maguire, and Luke Shaw. Noussair Mazraoui will start despite being rested for Sunday’s Premier League fixture against Brentford, joining Casemiro in midfield with Bruno Fernandes orchestrating attacks alongside Christian Eriksen. Rasmus Hojlund will lead the line, supported by Alejandro Garnacho and Kobbie Mainoo providing creative spark from wider positions.
Athletic Club will likely counter with their familiar 4-2-3-1 setup. Unai Simon takes goalkeeping duties behind the back four of Gorosabel, Nunez, Paredes, and Boiro. The midfield partnership of Prados and Vesga will protect the defense while supporting attacks from Inaki Williams, Berenguer, and the dangerous Nico Williams, with Guruzeta spearheading the offensive line.
The Red Devils face significant injury concerns with confirmed absentees including Diogo Dalot, Amad Diallo (ankle), Joshua Zirkzee (thigh), and Lisandro Martinez (cruciate ligament). Both Matthijs de Ligt and Ayden Heaven remain doubtful pending fitness assessments. Athletic Club enjoys a healthier squad with only Oihan Sancet confirmed unavailable for the crucial first leg.
Betting tips and match odds
Athletic Club to win
Bookmakers have installed Athletic Club as favorites at odds of +100, reflecting their impressive European home form. The Spanish side has won all six Europa League home games this season and suffered just one defeat at San Mames since September 2024. Their historical dominance against Manchester United—winning two of their three previous encounters—further strengthens their position. The team’s current La Liga form adds weight to this betting option, especially considering United’s inconsistent away performances in recent fixtures.
| Bet Type | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club Win | +100 | BetMGM |
| Both Teams to Score | -115 | BetMGM |
| More Goals in Second Half | +110 | BetMGM |
| Match Draw | 12/5 | bet365 |
Both teams to score
This market offers compelling value at -115 based on both teams’ scoring patterns. Consider these statistics supporting this bet:
- United has found the net in every Europa League match this campaign
- Both teams have scored in 10 of United’s 12 Europa League fixtures
- The Red Devils have scored in 11 of their last 12 away games in this competition
- Athletic Club has maintained perfect scoring form in home European matches since 2017
More goals in second half
Semi-final first legs typically begin cautiously before opening up after halftime, making the +110 odds on more second-half goals attractive. Statistical evidence supports this approach:
- The second half has produced more goals in three of United’s last four Europa League away fixtures
- All four previous head-to-head meetings have seen more scoring after the interval
- The tactical tension of a two-legged semi-final often leads to conservative first-half approaches
- Both managers may adjust strategies at halftime based on the initial tactical battle
Recent form and head-to-head analysis
Athletic Club enters this semi-final in solid form (D-W-W-L-W), unbeaten since January and sitting fourth in La Liga with Champions League qualification within reach. Their European campaign has been even more impressive, particularly at San Mames where they’ve won all six matches this season, keeping four clean sheets in the process.
Manchester United’s form tells a different story (D-L-W-L-D), with the Red Devils struggling for consistency under mounting pressure. Their recent performances against top opposition have raised questions about their defensive resilience, despite occasional flashes of attacking brilliance in European competition.
The historical head-to-head record favors Athletic Club significantly. The Basque side has won two of their three previous meetings with United, including both fixtures played at San Mames. This psychological edge could prove decisive in what promises to be a passionate European night in Bilbao.
Match prediction and key players to watch
A tense 1-1 draw appears the most likely outcome for this first leg. Athletic’s home advantage will push them forward, but United’s European experience should help them secure a vital away goal. The Red Devils will aim to keep the tie alive for the return leg at Old Trafford, where they’ve historically performed stronger than in away fixtures against Spanish opposition.
Athletic Club’s game-changer
Nico Williams stands as Athletic’s most potent threat, having contributed eight goals in 12 Europa League appearances this season. His recent scoring form—netting twice in his last three outings—highlights his growing influence. The young winger’s blistering pace and direct running will test United’s defensive structure, particularly on counter-attacks where his combination play with brother Inaki Williams creates overloads in dangerous areas.
- Eight goal contributions in 12 Europa League matches
- Scored twice in his last three appearances
- Exceptional pace and dribbling ability in one-on-one situations
- Growing reputation as one of Spain’s most exciting attacking talents
Manchester United’s x-factor
Bruno Fernandes remains United’s creative heartbeat and will shoulder responsibility for unlocking Athletic’s organized defense. The Portuguese playmaker’s goal against Lyon in the quarter-final demonstrated his ability to deliver in crucial moments. His set-piece delivery and vision for defense-splitting passes will be essential if the Red Devils hope to breach Athletic’s formidable home record and take an advantage into the second leg at Old Trafford.
- Scored crucial goal against Lyon in quarter-final
- Team’s leading creator and set-piece specialist
- Top goal contributor for United this season
- Strong record in European knockout matches
